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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">devter</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Развитие территорий</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Territory Development</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2412-8945</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Сибирский институт управления</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">VUGPPL</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">devter-724</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>НАУЧНЫЙ ПОИСК И ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>SCIENTIFIC SEARCH AND OFFERS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оценка сложности курсов и успеваемости обучающихся посредством байесовских сетей</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Assessing course difficulty and student performance using bayesian networks</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ефремов</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Efremov</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Егор Владимирович Ефремов, аспирант, стажер-исследователь</p><p>Новосибирск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Egor V. Efremov, Postgraduate Student, Research Intern</p><p>Novosibirsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">e.efremov@g.nsu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Логачев</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Logachev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Артем Васильевич Логачев, кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент, старший научный сотрудник</p><p>Новосибирск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Artem V. Logachev, Candidate of Sciences (Physics and Mathematics), Associate Professor, Senior Research Fellow</p><p>Novosibirsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">omboldovskaya@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Никитина</surname><given-names>В. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Nikitina</surname><given-names>V. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Виталина Игоревна Никитина, аспирант, стажер-исследователь</p><p>Новосибирск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vitalina I. Nikitina, Postgraduate Student, Research Intern</p><p>Novosibirsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">v.nikitina1@g.nsu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Прокопенко</surname><given-names>Е. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Prokopenko</surname><given-names>E. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Евгений Игоревич Прокопенко, кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент, старший научный сотрудник</p><p>Новосибирск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgeny I. Prokopenko, Candidate of Sciences (Physics and Mathematics), Associate Professor, Senior Researcher</p><p>Novosibirsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">prokopenko@math.nsc.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Токарева</surname><given-names>М. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Tokareva</surname><given-names>M. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Мария Дмитриевна Токарева, младший специалист</p><p>Новосибирск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Maria D. Tokareva, Junior Specialist</p><p>Novosibirsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">v.nikitina1@g.nsu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт математики им. С. Л. Соболева СО РАН</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Новосибирский национальный исследовательский государственный университет</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Novosibirsk National Research State University</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>06</day><month>06</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>2 (44)</issue><fpage>78</fpage><lpage>94</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Ефремов Е.В., Логачев А.В., Никитина В.И., Прокопенко Е.И., Токарева М.Д., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Ефремов Е.В., Логачев А.В., Никитина В.И., Прокопенко Е.И., Токарева М.Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Efremov E.V., Logachev A.V., Nikitina V.I., Prokopenko E.I., Tokareva M.D.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://devter.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/724">https://devter.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/724</self-uri><abstract><p>   В статье предлагается подход к совместной оценке сложности учебных курсов и успеваемости обучающихся на основе байесовских сетей. В отличие от традиционных методов, основанных исключительно на среднем балле или количестве зачетных единиц, данный подход учитывает как объективные, так и субъективные факторы, влияющие на уровень сложности курса и индивидуальные результаты студентов. Использование байесовских методов позволяет интегрировать априорную информацию (например, результаты вступительных испытаний или исторические данные по курсу) и обновлять оценки на основе наблюдаемых результатов обучения, обеспечивая прозрачность и интерпретируемость выводов. Метод не только способствует более справедливому ранжированию обучающихся с учетом сложности пройденных дисциплин, но и выявляет особенности преподавания, связанные с конкретными преподавателями или учебными заведениями, что может быть полезно для анализа качества образовательного процесса и его последующей оптимизации.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>   This article proposes an approach to jointly assessing course difficulty and student performance based on Bayesian networks. Unlike traditional methods based solely on GPA or the number of credits, this approach takes into account both objective and subjective factors influencing course difficulty and individual student performance. Using Bayesian methods allows for the integration of prior information (e.g., placement test results or historical course data) and updating assessments based on observed learning outcomes, ensuring transparency and interpretability of findings. This method not only facilitates a more equitable ranking of students based on the difficulty of the courses they complete but also identifies teaching characteristics associated with specific instructors or educational institutions, which can be useful for analyzing the quality of the educational process and its subsequent optimization.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>байесовские сети</kwd><kwd>успеваемость обучающихся</kwd><kwd>сложность учебного курса</kwd><kwd>вероятностное моделирование</kwd><kwd>ранжирование студентов</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Bayesian networks</kwd><kwd>student performance</kwd><kwd>course difficulty</kwd><kwd>probabilistic modeling</kwd><kwd>student ranking</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Работа выполнена при поддержке Математического Центра в Академгородке, соглашение с Министерством науки и высшего образования Российской Федерации № 075-15-2025-348.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">Mathematical Center in Akademgorodok under the agreement No. 075-15-2025-348 with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Beyond GPA and language proficiency: A systematic literature review of international students’ academic success factors / M. 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