devterРазвитие территорийTerritory Development2412-8945Сибирский институт управленияMEOCSOdevter-753Research ArticleГОСУДАРСТВО И ГРАЖДАНСКОЕ ОБЩЕСТВО, ИДЕОЛОГИЯ И ПОЛИТИКАSTATE AND CIVIL SOCIETY, IDEOLOGY AND POLITICSДинамическая несбалансированность ресурсов в триаде «стратегическое планирование — бюджетирование — стратегическое управление»: количественные пределы устойчивости и сценарный анализDynamic Resource Imbalance in the Triad of “Strategic Planning — Budgeting — Strategic Management”: Quantitative Stability Limits and Scenario AnalysisСильвестровС. Н.SilvestrovS. N.

Сильвестров Сергей Николаевич — доктор экономических наук, профессор, директор Института экономической политики и проблем экономической безопасности

Москва

Sergey N. Silvestrov — Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Director of the Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems

Moscow

ssilvestrov@fa.ruРешетниковС. Б.ReshetnikovS. B.

Решетников Станислав Борисович — старший научный сотрудник, Институт экономической политики и проблем экономической безопасности

Москва

Stanislav B. Reshetnikov — Senior Researcher, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems

Moscow

reshetnikovst@gmail.comКотоваН. Е.KotovaN. E.

Котова Наталья Евгеньевна — младший научный сотрудник, Институт экономической политики и проблем экономической безопасности

Москва

Natalia E. Kotova — Junior Researcher, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems

Moscow

nkotova@fa.ruФинансовый университет при Правительстве Российской ФедерацииРоссияFinancial University under the Government of the Russian FederationRussian Federation20261209202603 (45)5361Copyright © Сильвестров С.Н., Решетников С.Б., Котова Н.Е., 20262026Сильвестров С.Н., Решетников С.Б., Котова Н.Е.Silvestrov S.N., Reshetnikov S.B., Kotova N.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://devter.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/753

В статье представлены результаты исследования проблемы динамической не сбалансированности ресурсов в системе государственного управления. В отличие от работ, анализирующих изолированно фискальную устойчивость, стратегическое планирование и инвестиционную политику, предложена интегрированная аналитическая рамка, где устойчивость трактуется как согласованность траекторий целей, ресурсов и управленческих решений во времени. На основе синтеза макрофинансового, институционального и стратегического подходов формируется индекс динамической ресурсной сбалансированности, включающий четыре блока: дефицит бюджета, государственный долг, долю инвестиционных расходов и волатильность доходной базы.

The article presents the results of a study on the problem of dynamic resource imbalance in the public administration system. In contrast to works that analyse fiscal sustainability, strategic planning and investment policy in isolation, an integrated analytical framework is proposed in which sustainability is interpreted as the alignment over time of the trajectories of goals, resources and management decisions. Based on a synthesis of macro-financial, institutional and strategic approaches, a dynamic resource balance index is constructed, comprising four blocks: budget deficit, public debt, share of investment expenditure, and revenue base volatility.

стратегическое планированиебюджетированиефискальная устойчивостьгосударственный долгинвестиционные расходыволатильность доходовstrategic planningbudgetingfiscal sustainabilitypublic debtinvestment expenditurerevenue volatilityСтатья подготовлена по результатам исследований, выполненных за счет бюджетных средств по государственному заданию Финансового университета при Правительстве Российской Федерации.The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out using budget funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.ReferencesInternational Monetary Fund. Fiscal Monitor // Putting a Lid on Public Debt. October 2024. URL: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2024/october/english/text.pdf (дата обращения: 31.03.2026).International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Monitor. Putting a Lid on Public Debt. October 2024. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.