Dynamic Resource Imbalance in the Triad of “Strategic Planning — Budgeting — Strategic Management”: Quantitative Stability Limits and Scenario Analysis
EDN: MEOCSO
Abstract
The article presents the results of a study on the problem of dynamic resource imbalance in the public administration system. In contrast to works that analyse fiscal sustainability, strategic planning and investment policy in isolation, an integrated analytical framework is proposed in which sustainability is interpreted as the alignment over time of the trajectories of goals, resources and management decisions. Based on a synthesis of macro-financial, institutional and strategic approaches, a dynamic resource balance index is constructed, comprising four blocks: budget deficit, public debt, share of investment expenditure, and revenue base volatility.
Keywords
strategic planning,
budgeting,
fiscal sustainability,
public debt,
investment expenditure,
revenue volatility
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out using budget funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
About the Authors
S. N. Silvestrov
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey N. Silvestrov — Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Director of the Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems
Moscow
S. B. Reshetnikov
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Stanislav B. Reshetnikov — Senior Researcher, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems
Moscow
N. E. Kotova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Natalia E. Kotova — Junior Researcher, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems
Moscow
References
1. International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Monitor. Putting a Lid on Public Debt. October 2024. Availa ble at: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2024/october/english/text.pdf (ac cessed: 31.03.2026).
2. OECD. Sustainability of Public Finances in OECD Countries. Paris : OECD Publish-ing, 2025. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/sustainability-of-public-finances-in-oecd-countries_c19295e2/df89a38a-en.pdf (accessed: 31.03.2026).
3. Musgrave R.A., Musgrave P.B. Public Finance in Theory and Practice. 5th ed. New York : McGraw-Hill, 1989, 627 p.
4. Blanchard O. Public Debt and Low Interest Rates. American Economic Review, 2019, Vol. 109, no. 4, pp. 1197–1229. DOI: 10.1257/aer.109.4.1197
5. Bohn H. The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, vol. 113, no. 3, pp. 949–963.
6. Chudik A., Mohaddes K., Pesaran M.H., Raissi M. Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth? IMF Working Paper, 2015, no. WP/15/197.
7. De Soyres C., Kurlat S., Ohnsorge F., Sugawara N. Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact. IMF Working Paper, 2022, no. WP/22/076.
8. Égert B. Public Debt, Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects: Myth or Reality? CESifo Working Paper, 2013, no. 4157.
9. Curristine T., Adenauer I., Alonso Albarran V., Grinyer J., Tee K.H., Wendling C., Moretti D. How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. IMF How to Notes, 2024, no. 2024/005.
10. OECD. Medium-term and Top-down Budgeting in OECD Countries. 2023. Available at: https://one.oecd.org/document/GOV/SBO%282023%2910/REV1/en/pdf (accessed: 31.03.2026).
11. Belu Manescu C. The Planning of Public Investments in the EU Member States: Long-Term Strategy, Selection and Budgeting Issues. European Economy Discussion Paper, 2024, no. 213. 12. Sachs J.D., Warner A.M. Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper, 1995, no. 5398.
12. Kudrin A.L., Sokolov I.A. Byudzhetnie pravila kak instrument sbalansirovannoi byudzhetnoi poli tiki [Fiscal rules as a tool for balanced budget policy]. Voprosi ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2017, no. 11, pp. 5–32. DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2017-11-5-32
13. Skripnik D.V. Byudzhetnaya politika i ekonomicheskii rost v Rossii [Fiscal policy and economic growth in Russia]. Moscow: INP RAN, 2016, 56 p.
14. Akindinova N.V., Chernyavskii A.V., Avdeeva D.A. Rezultativnost byudzhetnikh raskhodov v Rossii i stranakh OESR [Effectiveness of budget expenditures in Russia and OECD countries]. Voprosi ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2017, no. 2, pp. 30–61.
15. Kudryashova Ye.V. Pravovoe regulirovanie strategicheskogo planirovaniya v sfere gosudar stvennikh finansov [Legal regulation of strategic planning in public finance] : monogr. Moscow: IZiSP ; INFRA-M, 2019, 304 p.
16. Arellano M., Bond S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 1991, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 277–297.
17. World Bank. World Development Indicators. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (accessed: 31.03.2026).
18. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Database. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2025/april (accessed: 31.03.2026).
19. International Monetary Fund. Global Debt Database. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD (accessed: 31.03.2026).
Review
For citations:
Silvestrov S.N., Reshetnikov S.B., Kotova N.E. Dynamic Resource Imbalance in the Triad of “Strategic Planning — Budgeting — Strategic Management”: Quantitative Stability Limits and Scenario Analysis. Territory Development. 2026;(3 (45)):53-61. (In Russ.) EDN: MEOCSO
Views:
53
JATS XML
Email this article 